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Autonomous vehicles were supposed to cut traffic—what if they don't?

A new MIT study analyzing Waymo's robotaxi operations in California found that autonomous vehicles may not reduce traffic as promised, with 44% of miles driven being 'deadheading' without passengers - similar to ride-hailing services. The research examined over 13.8 million trips covering 86.3 million miles, showing that while efficiency improved from 36% to 56% passenger-carrying miles, it plateaued well below optimal levels. This challenges a key argument for autonomous vehicles' urban benefits and raises questions about their actual impact on traffic congestion.

Background

Autonomous vehicles have been promoted as a solution to urban traffic congestion, with proponents arguing they would reduce the number of vehicles on the road through efficient routing and shared mobility. The technology has attracted over $100 billion in investment, with companies like Waymo leading commercial deployment in several US cities.

Source
Ars Technica
Published
Jun 3, 2026 at 11:13 PM
Score
7.0 / 10