Quilty Space reports a launch vehicle shortage of ~150 launches between now and 2030 outside China, potentially doubling with US military demand. The crisis is driven by rocket developmental delays, the Ukraine war removing Russian vehicles from Western markets, soaring megaconstellation demand, and Falcon 9's retirement from commercial service. The shortfall is expected to peak in 2028 and may not ease until the late 2030s.
Background
Global demand for satellite launches has surged due to megaconstellation deployments by Amazon and others, while new commercial rocket programs face repeated delays, creating a supply-demand imbalance in the space launch market.
- Source
- Ars Technica
- Published
- Oct 31, 2026 at 12:12 AM
- Score
- 7.0 / 10